CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-03-13T10:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24214/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NW in STEREO Ahead COR2 coronagraph associated with a filament eruption seen near N30E02 which erupts with significant deflection to the north and west as seen in SDO/GOES 304 imagery around 2023-03-13T09:54Z. Arrival signature notes: this arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-12T19:24Z CME, although this is less likely due to the earlier arrival at STEREO A. LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-16T02:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 750.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 811.766 Acceleration: -1.47697 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 228838.73 Duration in days: 2.6485964 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -1.48 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 473.8 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/03/2023 Time: 02:26 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 16.73 hour(s)
Difference: -22.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-03-14T11:04Z
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